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IMD predicts normal monsoon rainfall in 2018

IMD predicts normal monsoon rainfall in 2018

As per historical data, the long-period average (LPA) rainfall - between June and September - is 89cm.

Monsoon is regarded as "normal" if the average rainfall can be between 96-104 percent of the LPA.

Forecast suggests maximum probability for normal rainfall and a low probability for deficient rainfall during the season. Addressing a press conference on Monday, Met Department Director-General KJ Ramesh said, "India is going to experience third successful normal monsoon with a quantitative figure of 97 percent (+-5) in 2018".

IMD will update its forecast in early June with numbers on month and region-wise distribution of the monsoon.

It said that normal rains are likely for the country, particularly East India, while the Southern Peninsula and parts of Northeast India could be at some risk of getting below normal rains.

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According to IMD, there is 42 per cent possibility of normal rainfall and 12 per cent possibility of above normal rainfall - it means there are good chances of normal rainfall in the country. India had 95 percent of the LPA rainfall on the last 2017 - as against the first forecast of 96 percent of the LPA (with an error margin of +/- 5 percent).

The onset of the monsoon in June kick-starts planting of rain-fed Kharif crops.

For generating the forecast for the 2018 southwest Monsoon season rainfall, atmospheric and Oceanic initial conditions of April 2018 were used. Although rains would witness a drop in July and August that will not much affect the farmers.

The IMD's reasoning for the unexpected break is that it was caused by intra-seasonal variability as Pacific cyclones over Bay of Bengal pulled the monsoon currents towards them, leading to the disappearance of rains over Central and Northern India, plunging them on the brink of drought.


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